Welcome to the IHoP v.2

[dem beats 1,223]

16 hours ago, dem beats said:

You're speaking out of your place. 

 

I'm up at 6 am cleaning up because I timed my sourdough poorly and I was gonna reread everything I said to make sure I stand behind everything. 

Sean will know I didnt mean it like it reads how I'm reading it now but it's kind of the snippy comment I've been getting so maybe it slipped out because of that. 

I apologize either way. I'm trying to be thoughtful and get others to be and that wasn't.

 

My bad bro. 

[dem beats 1,223]

7 hours ago, ///M5 said:

I should add the word harmful in front of mutation.  Nothing reproduces identically.

 

Well that's the point and from the beginning the big problem and what's expected from this virus. It's ever changing symptoms and huge population that have no symptoms probably mean a ton of failed mutations that suck and will just turn into another harmless virus that humans host and doesnt hurt us until it finds some other host or is phased out generationally. 

This giant population will have undetectable amounts of the virus and probably have no chance of transmitting anything. If that's wrong, oops. It's super unlikely, but so was this virus moving so many species, and then into humans and then across oceans. Here we are. 

 Personally I hope it collapses due to its instability but we absolutely know it's not a stable virus. Falling apart sounds more likely to me. But I'm optimistic and as you said we are smart. Our health system can beat this. We just want to hurt as few people as possible and in case it is the worst, no one wants to say that they didnt plan and prepare for it. 

 

It could probably mutate into something that cant even hurt us. Its absolutely true. 

[dem beats 1,223]

8 hours ago, ///M5 said:

I've found no reliable sources showing mutation proof or reasonings behind...or info on surface staying length beyond 3 days.  Not saying it isn't there but if it is I would like to read it.

 

Ok.. I must be losing it.

 

Above I mentioned that I was linking the cleaning recommendations from the CDC. We the link doesn't seem to be there now when I see it. And I didnt find it googling it now. But I am tired AF. Maybe the page changed again. They have been changing them a ton.

 

I'll ask the W for the data she might have to see if there is something bleeding fresh.  She might have a fast way to find it  

[///M5 2,833]

It's all good.  As you know I research the piss out of anything and can't shop effectively because of it.  That has turned to trying to understand how to keep my parents alive and healthy through this.

 

[Aaron Clinton 2,372]

On 3/24/2020 at 8:32 AM, nem said:

Ford trying to push their stock value up.

Yeah, I need it up over $10 please.

[j-roadtatts 1,129]

mathematically there are too many unknown variables. My instinct tells me expect the worst and go from there. Humans are dumb in that we try to calculate things based solely on where we have already been. There are no absolutes other than death, and nothing in this life is a guarantee.

[j-roadtatts 1,129]

On a lighter note, speakers have made it in the house! Had to give the wife a couple days to acclimate to them, so haven't hooked them up yet. Being as she didn't even know I was building them until over half way through. I pretty much knew the only caveat would be that she could place plants on them. lol

[MKader17 332]

On 3/26/2020 at 12:50 PM, dem beats said:

 the CDC has changed their surface recommendations. they are extending the expected life on different surfaces and noting that its mutating faster than the flu. 

Citation?

[Godsmack 361]

On 3/26/2020 at 6:17 PM, dem beats said:

J the stay at home thing doesnt effect the modeling very much at this point. I am in the camp that it might hurt. But that's pretty flimsy. 

If it does happen from this point forward it's because of political or possible infrastructure problems. 

 

The stay at home thing is not intended to slow the spread of this virus. I think that might be the problem. Staying at home doesnt slow the spread of the virus too much but it may have an impact on the medical community. 

It doesn't at this point here in the US. If we did it better it would be more effective.

I know here in FL we see people doing the 6 ft thing in doses, but not like we should. Considering how densely we are populated, this will need to change. One way or another. Being separated DOES help slow/stop the progression of the disease. This has been shown historically. Combine that with proper sanitation precautions and you will see the numbers slow their rapid increase.

On 3/26/2020 at 6:34 PM, dem beats said:

I'm being a bit of a dick.   It means I love yall, and I'm probably just hurt more by this than most. 

 

Here is a resource that is much easier to consume than the CDC white papers and so on and will give you information way closer to what we know and dont know that almost anywhere. 

Not that I should have to Qualify but my roomate when in national security classes for his masters had this guy as a prof teaching about this exactlind of outbreak. My roomate modeled redvs blue teams for his degree using pub health information that this guy is basically the most informed in the world. I have got to see him speak. 

He is also not correct 100% of the time and I dodnt readhis book. He may be a scientologist for all I know but in context to what you need to know, this is better than all the news sources I have seen.  Combined. 

 

And at least you dont have to read the white papers and fall asleep and you dont have to trust me. 

 

Fill your brain with this if you have to spend time thinking about viruses for a while. 

 

I totally get you feeling hurt by this more than most. Your current medical state makes you more prone than most, and for you ultimately more dangerous if you do contract it. I have friends, my parents (mom, step-dad, and dad), and other family in the same 'high risk' boat. It makes sense to be a bit of a dick and we love you too bro.

That being said, with your research on the subject, what would you do differently? I understand if we had a time machine a shit ton could be done, but for the here and now what do you suggest? I can guarantee you have read more than I have.

J

[dem beats 1,223]

5 hours ago, MKader17 said:

Citation?

I sent it to Sean via text. I only get on here with a busted ass old phone. I'll do better at getting you guys that stuff. I did link it before but something changed. They have it under the pricess cruise and the classroom cleaning info pages. 

 

Also, as politely as I can request in reverse,  where are you hearing otherwise?  

I would love to read what you reader watch what you watch so I know better how to speak and convey hundreds of hours of reading faster than just shooting out vague info. If we focus on points your concerned about I can tell you why the science is focused where it is and how you can get your own data and come to your own opinion. I dont even mind if its different than mine,but I'm using my understanding and the understanding of the close personal experts in the field. I live with someone who mapped things like this and we are debating daily. I'm really happy to learn new information and correct my course. 

Edited March 28, 2020 by dem beats

[dem beats 1,223]

I've been baking bread. Sometimes 8 loaves in a day and I only get on when I'm already exhausted and done logging onto the PC to game with friends and family who just got computers to play with me and the roomate etc. 

 

I need to focus on getting my login for this site to work on the PC or at least new phone. 

[dem beats 1,223]

3 hours ago, Godsmack said:

It doesn't at this point here in the US. If we did it better it would be more effective.

I know here in FL we see people doing the 6 ft thing in doses, but not like we should. Considering how densely we are populated, this will need to change. One way or another. Being separated DOES help slow/stop the progression of the disease. This has been shown historically. Combine that with proper sanitation precautions and you will see the numbers slow their rapid increase.

I totally get you feeling hurt by this more than most. Your current medical state makes you more prone than most, and for you ultimately more dangerous if you do contract it. I have friends, my parents (mom, step-dad, and dad), and other family in the same 'high risk' boat. It makes sense to be a bit of a dick and we love you too bro.

That being said, with your research on the subject, what would you do differently? I understand if we had a time machine a shit ton could be done, but for the here and now what do you suggest? I can guarantee you have read more than I have.

J

I've been asked this alot because the science says the best thing, more than medication in fact, is healthy living and luck at the time of introduction to the virus. 

 

From there, if you get it bad, the virus gets stronger in you. If you have no symptoms and it just passes through you, that particular strain ends up weaker. 

 

This is all an oversimplification but the lack of sleep in the average American makes more difference in their outcome than medication for most of these viruses.  That's an unfortunate, uncomfortable,  painful truth that makes wealth inequality even more painful.  Those with enough money to just sleep in or work remotely can add hours to their sleep and give themselves a more than 30% better outcome chance. 

I'm not fucking around with the numbers. Your personal health impacts the heard more than most things. It's such a huge question that I need smaller bites, otherwise I want to snap back and tell you that you need a nap, a salad and a walk then come back to me.

 

: D

[dem beats 1,223]

16 hours ago, j-roadtatts said:

mathematically there are too many unknown variables. My instinct tells me expect the worst and go from there. Humans are dumb in that we try to calculate things based solely on where we have already been. There are no absolutes other than death, and nothing in this life is a guarantee.

This is important and why I sent that video. 

Gates did an interview on CNN and dropped only 2 bits of info and then pushed his agenda. 

 

Our current tests arent great. Some of the first ones were horrible and the numbers are not at all reliable, and that the modeling all projects doomsday shit or wonderful things because of the variables and the sliders you chose. We are at the BEGINNING of this.

Hope you and the fam are great. Those speakers are ungodly sexy. I do want. 

[dem beats 1,223]

https://www.cdc.gov/mmwr/volumes/69/wr/mm6912e3.htm

 

^--- discussion on process cruise and long lifespan. 

[MKader17 332]

5 hours ago, dem beats said:

I sent it to Sean via text. I only get on here with a busted ass old phone. I'll do better at getting you guys that stuff. I did link it before but something changed. They have it under the pricess cruise and the classroom cleaning info pages. 

 

Also, as politely as I can request in reverse,  where are you hearing otherwise?  

I would love to read what you reader watch what you watch so I know better how to speak and convey hundreds of hours of reading faster than just shooting out vague info. If we focus on points your concerned about I can tell you why the science is focused where it is and how you can get your own data and come to your own opinion. I dont even mind if its different than mine,but I'm using my understanding and the understanding of the close personal experts in the field. I live with someone who mapped things like this and we are debating daily. I'm really happy to learn new information and correct my course. 

Don't remember exactly where I saw the mutation, but this is from NPR so I trust it.

https://www.npr.org/2020/03/26/822107691/the-coronavirus-is-mutating-relatively-slowly-which-may-be-good-news

 

https://www.nejm.org/doi/full/10.1056/NEJMc2004973

[MKader17 332]

5 hours ago, dem beats said:

I've been baking bread. Sometimes 8 loaves in a day and I only get on when I'm already exhausted and done logging onto the PC to game with friends and family who just got computers to play with me and the roomate etc. 

 

I need to focus on getting my login for this site to work on the PC or at least new phone. 

Side hustle?

[///M5 2,833]

1 hour ago, MKader17 said:

Don't remember exactly where I saw the mutation, but this is from NPR so I trust it.

https://www.npr.org/2020/03/26/822107691/the-coronavirus-is-mutating-relatively-slowly-which-may-be-good-news

 

https://www.nejm.org/doi/full/10.1056/NEJMc2004973

If they posted the measured uncertainty I would feel better.  Suffering the same issue as the SMD amp dyno.

[///M5 2,833]

Although based on the fact they shaded bars I assume they know it and did it right, just aren't sharing and the devil is in the details.  

[///M5 2,833]

Links Matt sent (I have not read them yet as I don't want to, will sometime this weekend but I am trying to avoid news for a bit to focus on family instead of doomsday...I did grab a shotgun though)

https://www.cnbc.com/2020/03/23/cdc-coronavirus-survived-in-princess-cruise-cabins-up-to-17-days-after-passengers-left.html

https://www.cdc.gov/mmwr/volumes/69/wr/mm6912e3.htm

https://www.cdc.gov/mmwr/volumes/69/wr/mm6912e3.htm

 

[///M5 2,833]

He also sent some GORGEOUS pictures of bread

 

[nigel 148]

50 minutes ago, ///M5 said:

He also sent some GORGEOUS pictures of bread

 

And why, are we not being made privy to these photos?  Priorities.

[///M5 2,833]

It was sexting pRon

[dem beats 1,223]

10 hours ago, MKader17 said:

Don't remember exactly where I saw the mutation, but this is from NPR so I trust it.

https://www.npr.org/2020/03/26/822107691/the-coronavirus-is-mutating-relatively-slowly-which-may-be-good-news

 

https://www.nejm.org/doi/full/10.1056/NEJMc2004973

So what is the graph here showing you that is different from what I'm saying?

[dem beats 1,223]

10 hours ago, MKader17 said:

Side hustle?

Trying to keep family and friends with a simple comfort. 

 

I've gotten sourdough down to 3 steps. It's nice. I just need to decide my scalability and then how much I want to make but I'm thinking about charging at some point. 

[dem beats 1,223]

8 hours ago, nigel said:

And why, are we not being made privy to these photos?  Priorities.

The only way I get onto SSA is this fucked old phone. It's a long story that involves lawyers and a bunch of shit. 

 

I just need to change my password or something from this device and then login from somewhere else. I'm living over 3 devices basically. it's hard and I've made mistakes. Lol